College Football: Week 4 Preview

No cupcake Saturday has arrived.

The term "Separation Saturday" is typically used by the media at some point during October or November to describe a day of college football in which we will figure out which teams rise to the top and which will begin to fall. While this Saturday will most likely not divulge any insight to conference champions, the polls could see a major shake up after Saturday's games. There is an insane number of ranked teams playing games that could easily go either way. The word "parity" might become extremely overused by myself (and the media) during the course of the 2009/10 season. As I said in an earlier post (http://xmarcspot.blogspot.com/2009/09/college-football-week-2-recap.html), this season reminds me of 2007- a season which could, and most likely will, produce some unexpected conference champions and top seeded rankings over the duration of the year.

Florida and Texas have looked decent in their first three games, but neither looked like a clear-cut national champion to me. During USC's dominating run in the early 2000's, it seemed like every week they had final scores of 62-7. Florida was absolutely dominating in most games last year. This year, there is a certain vulnerability with just about every team in the top 25. Five of the preseason top 10 teams have already suffered a loss, two in the top four. Alabama (current #3 and preseason #5) actually looks like it might be the best team in the nation at this point. Even though they played a tough Virginia Tech team at a neutral site, bama's schedule after that has been a joke, not even a funny joke- one of those jokes that you kind of sit there and stare at the person after they say it and wonder if they actually thought it was funny before it came out of their mouth. Florida International and North Texas are much different from Florida playing Tennessee or Texas playing Texas Tech, but the tide did beat VA Tech, so I have to give them some credit.

Taking a look at the slate of games for this week, there honestly isn't one ranked team that I would say with 100% confidence is safe this week. Obviously I'm not picking Kentucky to upset Florida, but my point is that there are no cupcakes this Saturday, how refreshing. Now that we have the tune-up games out of the way we should be getting some really great football. Here is a look at some of the key games this weekend (predicted winners in bold):

Fresno State @ #14 Cincinnati - the Bearcats have a great opportunity to make a major splash in the BCS if they can handle their extremely manageable schedule. Fresno State is no pushover, but Cincy should be able to pull this one off.

South Florida @ #18 Florida State - the Noles have been a mystery this year. After an epic battle with Miami they almost lay an egg at home against Jacksonville State. And then they go and blow out BYU on the road. So which team shows up this weekend? If South Florida didn't lose Matt Grothe, this decision would be a lot harder, but the Noles have a major edge now.

Southern Miss @ #20 Kansas- Southern Mississippi has looked surprisingly good so far. But the Golden Eagles haven't had to deal with a dynamic QB like Todd Reesing who is piling on the yards to go with his 6-1 touchdown to interception ratio to start the year. This should be closer than a lot of people expect. I could see SoMiss winning, but the smart move is to pick the Jayhawks at home.

#22 North Carolina @ Georgia Tech- the Tech offense has hit a wall after impressing the nation since Paul Johnson took control last year and Butch Davis has really done a great job since taking over at UNC. This game should be a great battle but I think Paul Johnson gets the Jackets' offense back on track with a big home win against the 'heels.

Indiana @ #23 Michigan- three years ago no one would give Indiana a chance to win this game. This year, its a little more uncertain, not so much due to Indiana's success, but to Michigan's recent struggles. The Michigan faithful hope that Tate Forcier will continue his early success make sure that the nation has no doubt that the blue will beat teams like Indiana if he has anything to say about it.

#6 California @ Oregon- since Oregon's opening game loss at Boise State the Ducks look like an improved squad. The Ducks knocked off a good Utah team last week. Cal, meanwhile, is gaining momentum behind potential Heisman candidate Jahvid Best. Best has 412 yards and 8 rushing touchdowns through the first three games. I am tempted to pick Oregon at home because Cal has really struggled with Pac-10 road games over the past few years. After I looked up the stats of Jeremiah Masoli, Oregon's quarterback, and saw that he has zero touchdown passes through three games (and completed just 4 passes in a win against Utah last week), I can't go with the Ducks. Oregon will have to augment their one dimensional rush offense if they want to beat a top 10 opponent. Cal should win, although I'm nervous about this pick.

#9 Miami @ #11 Virginia Tech- most likely the game of the week. If Randy Shannon is smart, he is making sure his team isn't listening to all the hype. The Hurricanes are being well publicized, including talk of quarterback Jacory Harris being a potential Heisman candidate. A win in Blacksburg would be huge for Miami. Tyrod Taylor still has a lot to prove as a quarterback- his completion percentage is under 50%, which is fine if he is tearing it up on the ground. But Taylor has just 10 net rushing yards through the first three games. He has to do one or the other particularly well on Saturday if the Hokies want to hold off a hot Miami team who looks like they are focused on bringing the U back to national prominence. I like the 'canes on the road.

Illinois @ #13 Ohio State- I am underwhelmed by the 2009 version of the Buckeyes. I don't think they are the powerhouse that we have seen (during the regular season anyway) over the past decade. That said, they will most likely handle business against the Illini.

#15 TCU @ Clemson- this is the first real test of the season for TCU, and it should be a tough one. Death Valley is not an easy place to win a game, especially for a team that isn't used to playing in that type of environment. Other than one terrible quarter against GA Tech, Clemson has looked like a solid team. TCU better bring their A game, anything less and we are looking an "upset", if you will. I like the Tigers at home.

Colorado State @ #19 BYU- how will BYU respond to the big loss at home last week? Well, I imagine. While an at-large BCS bid will be much harder to come by with a loss on the books, BYU still has plenty left to play for and should take home another W this week.

Iowa @ #5 Penn State- Iowa managed to beat the Nittany Lions in thriller last year in Iowa City. Penn State will surely remember how the Hawkeyes destroyed their national championship aspirations last year and look to come out swinging on Saturday. Daryll Clark has been impressive so far this year, but he will have to take care of the ball against a tough Hawkeye team. JoePa might have to take a potty break in excitement, but I like Penn State this week.

Notre Dame @ Purdue- I dislike Jimmy Clausen a little more every week. Notre Dame makes me nervous, I don't know how to pick this one; is it an upset if Purdue wins? Eh, probably not going happen- Irish should win.

#24 Washington @ Stanford- Washington is a one-hit-wonder. You shouldn't go from 0-12 last year to the top 25 because of one big win. This Washington squad, lead by Jake Locker, is much improved from last year, but they still have a ways to go to be a major player. I like Stanford.

Texas Tech @ #17 Houston- Houston QB Case Keenum has 725 yards and seven touchdowns so far this year. Here's the catch: the Cougars have only played two games. Those are some pretty impressive numbers. That looks like Texas Tech type numbers, only the 2008 version of the Red Raiders. Tech can't keep up with the Houston offense this year.

Washington State @ #12 USC- I'm sure Pete Carroll has his team re-focused after the letdown last week. Trojans will be back with a vengeance.

SEC GAMES:

#4 Ole Miss @ South Carolina - great Thursday night game. South Carolina's offense looks much improved from week one, but the defense looks a little more vulnerable. Jevan Snead should be able to exploit the hit or miss Gamecock defense for a win.

# 7 LSU @ Miss State- Starkville is hardly a home field advantage. Compare that with an 11AM local kickoff time and it is nonexistent. Not that it would matter anyway, LSU will win big.

Arkansas @ #3 Alabama- Alabama's reliable defense will be tested this week. Arky QB Ryan Mallet has 717 yards and 6 TDs in just two games (most of which came against the UGA defense). The Hogs are averaging 50 points per game. The Tide have been putting up good numbers on offense, but not quite that of Arkansas. The Alabama defense is the key to this game. This should be a very interesting game which is significant in the SEC West race. I think bama holds on for a close win.

#1 Florida @ Kentucky- Not an un-winnable game for the Wildcats, especially with the flu hitting the Gators squad. But, the Florida bench players are still better than most of the UK starters- Gators win big.

Arizona State @ # 21 UGA-the Sun Devils lost at home to the dawgs last year, but UGA looks a lot more vulnerable than Stafford and Moreno's squad. Still, Georgia has enough talent to handle a mediocre ASU team who hasn't been challenged yet this year.

Ball State @ Auburn- the Tigers continue to impress. The train should keep on rolling with a big win over a winless Ball State team.

Ohio @ Tennessee- the Vols are on a two game losing streak. Kiffin should spend more time on game planning and leading his team in practice than talking smack. There is no excuse for the Vols to lose this game.

Vandy @ Rice- I can't believe an SEC team would travel to Rice, but the Commodores are making the trip. I don't think Rice's home field advantage will compare to what Vandy is used to. This is one of the winnable games on the Commodore schedule.

BONUS COVERAGE: I am experimenting with a new idea this week for the first time, guest bloggers! I asked a friend, and Minnesota sports fanatic, David Quick to give me some insight on the Gophers game this week. Here is what David had to say:

Minnesota @ Northwestern

The Minnesota Gophers will be traveling to Ryan Field to play Northwestern at Noon on Saturday. Both teams are 2-1 and looking to get their first conference win. The last two times these teams have met, the games have gone into double overtime. Both times, the WildCats have come out on top. Northwestern is favored by 2.5, respectively, since they are at home, but I see this game going to the Gophers this time. Eric Decker is showing why he is the best WR no one knows about. In 3 games, he has 27 receptions for 415 yards and 2 TD’s. He has also thrown a touchdown this season. QB, Adam Weber would be lost without Decker, and it showed when Decker went out last week in the last few minutes of the game with an apparent ankle injury. Northwestern seems to be looking better the past couple of years and will make sure to give the Gophers all they got this weekend. Northwestern has better Total Yards, Passing Yards, Rushing Yards, and Points scored this season than the Golden Gophers. However, Northwestern has had an easier schedule and they also lost to Syracuse (even though Minnesota barely beat them as well). Northwestern should pound the ball and control the clock with the running game. They have a slew of talent with Stephen Simmons and Jacob Schmidt. They have 3 RB’s with 2 TD’s each. Minnesota, who usually has one of the best running games in the Big Ten, has been pretty bad this season and needs to step it up to help the passing game (and Decker to not be triple teamed). I see this game def. being a close one (possibly a third double overtime game), but this year the game belongs to Minnesota. Homer in full effect!

Take Minnesota to win straight up, and take over the projected total (48).

Thanks David, good stuff. Homerism is allowable on X Marc's the Spot- but if you are wrong on this one, you will be publicly BOO'd. That said, I agree with your pick.

Final word to Lane Kiffin: spend more time with this instead of talking smack about a team that just beat you: