Tuesday, September 29, 2009

College Football Week 4 Recap


Dream big, college football fans.

This could be the year that the system finally destructs. This could be the season that proves how broken the BCS truly is. There is a scenario in place that could exploit the flaws that have been so well documented, yet unchanged, since the inception of the Bowl Championship Series system in college football. Bear with me here:

Boise State (now ranked #5 in the nation) is poised to be a huge BCS buster. If the Broncos remain undefeated, they could very well be on their way to a top two ranking in the AP poll. With losses guaranteed to at least two of the current top three teams, Boise State is going to move up at least two slots. If Sam Bradford comes back healthy and gets the Sooner offense back on track, Oklahoma could knock off Texas. That means we could potentially see Boise State ranked as the #1 team in the AP poll. I realize that this scenario is a long shot, but it is far from inconceivable. It will be interesting to see how the computers like Boise when the BCS rankings are released. For the record, I don't think we will see the Broncos in the BCS Championship Game, but I certainly expect that they will make one of the BCS bowl games.

Here is the scenario I am hoping for, just imagine: Florida loses to LSU (Alabama moves to #2, LSU #3, Boise State to #4). Alabama beats LSU (Bama to #2, Boise to #3). Texas loses to Oklahoma (Bama to #1, Boise to #2). Alabama loses to Florida in the SEC Championship Game and drops down, Boise State moves to #1. A strong Florida team that had a midseason road loss to the #3 team in the nation is still regarded as a top 2 team and gets re-ranked as #2 or #3 after winning the SEC. A one loss Oklahoma team (who lost early enough to climb back up the polls) has enough momentum to be ranked #3 after winning the Big-12. So now we have #1 Boise (undefeated), #2 Florida (one loss) and #3 Oklahoma (one loss). The computers, not thrilled with Boise State, launch Florida and Oklahoma to the top. Now we have an undefeated #1 team in the nation left out of the BCS Championship Game. If THAT isn't the catalyst that will change the system in college football, I don't know what will finally cause the revolution.

But I digress. It is fun to think about these scenarios, but everything would have to go just right for it to happen. Hell, even if everything does fall into place to expose how awful the BCS really is, that still doesn't guarantee any changes. We have seen the system at its worst (2004 Auburn/Utah and 2006 Michigan, for example) without any major changes to the system. We can hope and dream all day long for Boise State to lead the revolution, but I don't see it happening. So let's talk about what is actually happening in the world of college football.

No cupcake Saturday turned out to be exactly what I was expecting- we saw four top 10 teams lose (#4 Ole Miss, #5 Penn State, #6 Cal and #9 Miami) and three other ranked teams also come out with an L in week four. Florida, Texas and Alabama are the clear cut top three at this point in the season. Filling out the remaining top 10 slots is an arbitrary process at this point which looks like it could change from week to week for the remainder of the season. Boise State, TCU, and Cincinnati could potentially be fixtures in the top 10, but it is likely that at least one of those teams will slip up and lose a game.

Cal proved once again that they can't win Pac-10 road games with an embarrassing 42-3 loss at Oregon. The loss was bad enough to slide Cal all the way from #6 to a #24 ranking, which is probably generous. Penn State also showed that they have a new daddy named Hawkeye. Daryll Clark has looked good for PSU, until this week when he threw 3 picks and completed only 12 of his 32 pass attempts. The Big-Ten (11) is going to be an interesting race this year, especially with Iowa with a strong 4-0 start and the resurgence of a Michigan team that looks like it could wreak havoc on conference opponents (especially those who can't score many points, cough cough Ohio State cough Penn State).

The SEC continues to be the dominant conference in terms of rankings. Even with Ole Miss sliding down the charts, three of the top four teams are from the SEC. Florida obviously has to be worried about the status of Tim Tebow. Even with a solid backup in John Brantley, the Gators need Tebow with a tough conference schedule upcoming. Superman's vulnerability has never before been witnessed by his teammates or anyone else in the college football world. Luckily for the Gators, this is an off week before a tough road test in Baton Rouge in week six. Lucky might just be on the Gators side after all: if there were ever a time for Tebow to go down, that was it. With two weeks to heal and prepare for LSU, the Gators should be firing on all cylinders in what could be the game of the year between highest ranked opponents (provided LSU can beat UGA in Athens this weekend).

I wonder how many injuries there were from fans and media jumping off the Miami bandwagon after an embarrassing 31-7 loss for the 'canes in Blacksburg on Saturday. Jacory Harris didn't help his darkhorse Heisman bid with a 9 for 25, zero TD, one interception performance against the Hokies. Virginia Tech finally figured out how to use Tyrod Taylor! I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw the final box score- Taylor completed 4 of 9 passes for a TD and 98 yards, but he ran 10 times for 75 yards. PERFECT game plan for Taylor. You don't want this guy throwing the ball more than 20 times per game. VA Tech finally let their running game carry them to victory, rushing for a total of 272 yards. Let's see if Beamer is wise enough to continue this strategy or if he is dumb enough to think Taylor can be a true QB and put the team on his back with the passing game. No, Frank, don't do it!

Houston won their toughest test left on the schedule against Texas Tech on Saturday. The Cougars could very well sneak into the BCS as well this year. All sorts of chaos await us, how exciting. BYU also won again and will most likely continue to slowly climb the polls.

Bobby Bowden, its time to retire, seriously. This Florida State team is the very definition of night and day. I don't even know where to begin fixing the problem in Tallahassee. Bobbo, you're not going to catch JoePa after you had to vacate the wins for cheating, its time to concede the all-time win record and do yourself, and ultimately the FSU fans and football, a huge favor and retire at the end of the year.

Washington proved that, while it is a very improved team from last year, they were a one hit wonder in beating USC. UW could still very well win a few Pac-10 games (after all, Cal has to play at Washington so go ahead and chalk a W in for the Huskies in that one).

Missouri and Auburn, both 4-0, are the top two vote getters outside of the top 25. Both of the Tigers are the only undefeated, unranked teams. Meanwhile, there are 14 teams with one loss who are ranked ahead of the two BCS conference schools. Both of these teams have historically been good football programs and both have made BCS appearances within the past 5 years. Yet, non-BCS programs and teams with one loss (a few to unranked opponents) are ranked higher than Mizzou and Auburn. Expectations for both programs were very low to begin the year, and apparently the voters are unimpressed with the pair of 4-0 starts. Both teams will have their chance to prove they belong this upcoming week when Mizzou travels to #14 OK State and Auburn travels to Knoxville to play the Vols. I guess it is true that respect isn't given, it is earned. Time for both Tigers to earn some respect.

One more thing to add: "Minnesota beat Northwestern to win their first conference game as David predicted".

I'll have a week 5 preview out tomorrow- in the mean time, have fun dreaming about a world with no BCS, or at least a college football system so engulfed with chaos that it is forced to make some drastic changes.

Sweet dreams.


2 comments:

DQ said...

The BCS is the main reason I enjoy NFL over college. Great blog. And again no talk about Minnesota (remember who your readers are!). I'll even except this: "Minnesota beat Northwestern to win their first conference game as David predicted". That's all.......Snarf

@Doks_Daddy said...

If Auburn can win Saturday night, they will be back in all polls. They just need a nationally televised game so voters can see them and realize they have a pretty good team this year. Good matchup, it will be interesting to see how the AU running attack will do against UT's front 7. Todd will also get a chance to show what he can do in the air...

Tellin' it like it is since '85